As Vietnam continues to rank among Asia’s top destinations for foreign investment, we are committed to keeping our global audience informed about key developments through the Kenno Vietnam Pulse series.
January marked the start of Vietnam’s new 2026–2030 development cycle, with the Government revising economic growth priorities for the next five years. Meanwhile, the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) shifted to a more measured policy stance following aggressive credit growth in 2025. The stock market began the year strongly before pulling back in the last two weeks of the months, as we observed selective capital flows into companies that delivered solid earnings results as the reporting season started. This environment created attractive opportunities for portfolio rebalancing, enabling us to outperform the market this month.
The Vietnamese stock market closed January with a month-over-month gain of 2.5% in Vietnamese Dong (VND), or 3.5% in USD, after an early rally followed by a mid-month correction. During the first two weeks, the VN Index increased 5.3% in local currency, driven mainly by state-owned enterprises (SOEs) in banking, insurance, oil and gas, and utilities – following Resolution 79 which set clearer expectations around governance and efficiency for SOEs. In the second half of the month, the index declined 2.6% as earnings season began and investors shifted away from policy-driven trades toward companies with stronger earnings visibility, especially in consumer and technology sectors. In our view, the mid-month adjustment was necessary and reflected a healthier market during the earnings season, as investors gained more visibility and rebalanced toward companies with strong fundamentals.
Regarding trading activity, we expect the typical slowdown in volumes ahead of the Lunar New Year to take place in February rather than January, with the holiday coming around three weeks later than usual on this calendar year. Foreign investors returned to net selling with outflows concentrated in Vingroup-related stocks, including Vingroup (VIC), Vinhomes (VHM), and Vincom Retail (VRE), as well as Masan Consumer (MCH) and Vietjet Air (VJC). Meanwhile, we observed selective foreign buying of FPT Corporation (FPT), Military Commercial Bank (MBB), Vietnam Prosperity Commercial Bank (VPB), and Techcom Securities (TCX), reflecting targeted accumulation of high-quality stocks.
On the monetary front, the SBV has shifted its policy stance for the new year after aggressive credit growth of 19% year-over-year in 2025. In January 2026, it set targets for annual credit growth to not exceed 15%, with the same cap applied to the property sector. Although this can put some pressure on our portfolio company in residential real estate, Nam Long Group (NLG), we believe it has more positive indications for the broader economy and the stock market. A more measured credit environment should help stabilize the Vietnamese Dong and reduce macro risks, which is supportive for market confidence and USD-denominated investor returns.
In early January, the Government issued Resolution 01 and the National Assembly approved Resolution 252/2025, together outlining policy direction for the 2026–2030 development cycle. The framework targets average GDP growth of at least 10% per year during this period, alongside higher labor productivity and a clearer regional development structure. Vietnam maintains an emphasis on macroeconomic stability, while placing more focus on execution, institutional reform, and technology and digitalization.
Vietnam’s full-year economic data for 2025 was also released with real GDP increasing 8% year-over-year. Growth accelerated in the fourth quarter and was led by exports and industrial production, while consumption improved but remained below GDP growth. Looking ahead, domestic demand and household spending are expected to be supported by personal income tax cuts, higher tax allowances, value-added tax (VAT) reductions, and targeted consumption measures introduced for 2026, such as major public infrastructure developments.
Although the start of a new economic planning cycle typically has limited immediate impact on corporate earnings, we remain positive that Vietnam’s revised macro focus and continued policy reforms will support a more efficient investment environment, particularly for domestically oriented companies.
January saw further progress in Vietnam’s technology sector, with several large projects starting construction. These include our portfolio company FPT's digital technology and mixed-use park in Hanoi and advanced semiconductor chip testing and packaging plant in Bac Ninh, as well as Vietnam's first domestic semiconductor fabrication facility project undertaken by Viettel Group.
Meanwhile, the real estate sector remained under pressure due to more cautious credit policy. Expectations of lower initial credit quotas, stricter early-year lending limits, and higher mortgage rates at some banks contributed to continued weakness across property stocks. These conditions affect sentiment toward our residential property holding, NLG. However, we remain confident in the company's fundamentals, including strong pre-sales performance which highlights resilient demand in the affordable housing segment and supports our long-term recovery and upside expectations.
In January, as earnings season began, we actively adjusted our positions and rebalanced the portfolio, driving outperformance versus the VN Index. High-quality stocks in Consumer Staples, Consumer Discretionary, and Information Technology performed particularly well toward month-end following the release of 2025 earnings results. We also adjusted positioning to account for the expected low-liquidity period around the Lunar New Year.
During the month, we also joined several analyst calls and brokers’ webinars on the 2026 outlook. As a board member of TNH Hospital Group (TNH), our Head of Investments Giang Nguyen also took part in approving the company's annual budget, where the board pushed management to optimize costs for a new growth cycle.
And that’s a wrap for this month’s edition of Kenno Vietnam Pulse. We hope you enjoyed reading and found valuable insights into Vietnam’s market landscape. Feel free to subscribe to our monthly newsletter for more timely, factual, and actionable updates. If you would like a closer look at investment opportunities in Vietnam, we invite you to connect with us for more information and tailored advice.